This research examines decisions from experience in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Two experiments revealed four main effects. (1) Risk neutrality: The typical participant did not learn to become risk averse, a contradiction to the hot stove effect. (2) Sensitivity to the transition probabilities that govern the Markov process. (3) Positive recency: The probability of risky choice to be repeated was higher after a win than after a loss. (4) Inertia: The probability of a risky choice to be repeated following a loss was higher than the probability of a risky choice after a safe choice. These results could be described with a simple contingent sampler model, which assumes that choices are made based on small samples of experiences contingent on the current state. |